Why Incompetent People Often Think They're Smart (The Dunning-Kruger Effect)
To bend the world to one's liking sounds like the motto of Pippi Longstocking, but unfortunately it is not only children who take that view. The frightening conviction with which many people give away false or half-baked knowledge and shout it out into the world as the only valid truth is not only hair-raising, but can also be dangerous. We all encounter them every day: Work colleagues, fellow passengers on public transportation, or protagonists on dubious talk shows who trumpet conspiracy theories, misinformation, and persistent urban myths with the fervor of utter conviction. Unfortunately, these people are not only very loud and aggressive in what they do, they also lay their opinions on the table at every suitable and unsuitable opportunity, like an untouchable relic carved in stone. The fact that everyone else only sees a pink elephant standing in the room is practically of no concern to them. This widespread phenomenon of distorted self-perception was investigated and brought to a high level of understanding by the two American social psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger in 1999. Since then, the inexplicable has at least had a name: Dunning-Kruger effect. What exactly is hidden behind the Dunning-Kruger effect and why the most incompetent people think themselves smart, we’ll explain to you in this article.
1. Lack of Knowledge Opens the Way to Fake Knowledge
The less sound knowledge or expertise there is on a subject, the more persistently Dunning-Kruger people express their opinions about it. They do not deviate from this opinion, even if recognized experts on the subject are present. On the contrary, experts' opinions are automatically dismissed as fake. Not infrequently, experts are even accused of being paid for spreading false information. The line to conspiracy theory is blurred here. A frightening detail: Studies have shown that the lower the actual level of knowledge of the actors, the more strongly information is retained and disseminated. The important preconditions for this is that the misconception must be useful in some way for these people. A typical example across human history: People of Group X are taking jobs away from people of Group Y.
2. Group Pressure and a Herd Instinct Boost the Dunning-Kruger Effect
The power of a group should never be underestimated. So it is not surprising that a misconception does not become less effective the more often it is shared; on the contrary, it spreads. The more people fall prey to a misconception, the more strongly it manifests itself within the group. Unfortunately, history shows us again and again at regular intervals that alarming mass phenomena can arise from this. For non-representative field studies, a trip to the local inn or clubhouse is enough. The Dunning-Kruger effect is a regular at pretty much every table of regulars at the local tavern.
3. Smarter Than the Experts
Those affected by the Dunning-Kruger effect not only consider themselves to be infallible and smarter than their fellow humans, they even assume that they can top the knowledge of proven and recognized experts on a topic. Studies show that there is even a significant correlation between the lack of knowledge on a subject and the perceived subjective expertise of these people. The less knowledge they objectively had on a subject, the more competent they felt and saw themselves. Having a discussion with sufferers of the Dunning-Kruger effect is rarely effective. Moreover, few of us are actually immune to it. Even those who consider themselves well-informed and unbiased can fall prey to its dynamics. Trying to get these people to change their minds with facts or arguments usually has the exact opposite effect. It reinforces their aversion to rational objections and a rethinking of opinion even more.
4. Anyone or Everyone Is Susceptible
Studies have shown that the Dunning-Kruger effect unfortunately does not stop at truly educated, well-informed people. In fact, we are all susceptible to falling for this psychological phenomenon in some special circumstance. The Dunning-Kruger effect can occur regardless of intelligence, education, or social background. Not even the knowledge surrounding its existence permanently and consistently protects us from it. As studies show, even representatives of the same professional group are not inclined to believe the advice of their colleagues more than their own judgment.
5. Wanting to Explain the Inexplicable
In everyday life, most of us are more likely to take flight than to attempt a discussion with Dunning-Kruger people. As hard as it may be to repeatedly face dangerous half-knowledge coupled with hubris and arrogance, it can be all the more difficult to realize that logic won't win you any laurels here. However, anyone who wants to play chess with a pigeon should be armed. So what can be done when an obviously wrong opinion, once formed, cannot be corrected either with empirical data and facts or with other objective evidence? The solution lies in the person and their experiences, not in their knowledge or ignorance. Anyone who wants to embark on the journey to the center of half-truths and false opinions must question how this person arrived at his or her erroneous assessment of the situation. Where did the information come from? Who provided it? And how was it sold? Here lies the solution to the riddle.
6. The Emperor's New Clothes
A piece of information can be wrong to the square of sky-scraping absurdity, but if it is packaged and presented well, it will be believed. Similar to the fairy tale of the Emperor's New Clothes, faith moves mountains, not facts. So if you want to get to the bottom of a Dunning-Kruger person, listen to them, ask about their personal history, and let the discussion take place in a friendly setting. Scientific studies also provide evidence for this. Accordingly, such experiments have proven to be particularly promising when the interviewees are offered food and drink. In the worst case, this turns an empirical expedition with an uncertain outcome into a nice evening with small talk among strangers who may understand each other a little better at the end of the evening. By the way, the Dunning-Kruger effect can only be permanently remedied over the long term. A lack of knowledge can only be remedied by comprehensive educational offerings that are freely accessible to everyone.
Today’s Conclusion: Must the Smarter Yield?
Especially political mass phenomena show the danger that this overestimation of oneself, paired with enormous gaps in knowledge, can hold. Watching inactively as society is pushed in a certain direction by conspiracy theories, media fabrications, and plentiful lies hurts the soul of every enlightened and sensible person. So the wiser ones should not give in without a fight, at least not if there is a trace of hope. The more impartially one goes in search of the motives of these people, the greater the chances of success. However, one should not be disappointed by failure. Sometimes it helps to see the unchangeable as what it is. Or as the British philosopher Bertrand Russell put it in a nutshell back in 1933: "One of the main problems of our modern world is that the stupid are completely sure, while the intelligent are full of doubt." That's it for today.